economy Archives | �鶹ԭ�� News

�鶹ԭ�� Alum’s Influence on Rise of Florida’s Space Coast

Robert Stephens — Tue, 10 Feb 2026 14:09:19 +0000

As the executive director at the Space Coast Office of Tourism, Peter Cranis ’84 ’88MA wants visitors and residents to experience the sense of wonder he feels every day at his job.

From the rush of a rocket launch to the thrill of catching a wave to the joy of exploring natural and wild spaces — all only a 45-minute drive from Orlando — Cranis and his team have been a driving force behind the revival of Florida’s Space Coast as a premium, sought-out destination.

In recognition for the strides the area has made since he took his leadership role in 2019, Florida Trend recently named him among the state’s 500 Most Influential People, and Space Coast Daily chose him the Person of the Year for 2025. But for Cranis, these accolades aren’t a product of one person’s merits.

“The awards mean I’ve hired the right people and allowed them to do what they do best,” he says.

�鶹ԭ�� two-time communications grad Peter Cranis was been recognized among the state’s 500 Most Influential People.

The two-time communications alum and Nicholson School of Communication and Media Hall of Famer also served as an adjunct professor in both Nicholson and the Rosen College of Hospitality Management.

Here he shares his experiences and knowledge.

On the growing popularity of The Space Coast:

Our tourist development tax (TDT) hit a record $26 million in 2025 — up $10 million since 2019. I can’t deny we have things here that no one else has — to the north, we can watch space launches and cruise ships heading out. If I want to clear my head at lunchtime, I can go across the street to put my toes in the sand or walk around a maritime hammock. But attracting tourists isn’t easy — even for a bucket-list destination along 70 miles of beaches.

On getting creative to address challenges:

Competition is our biggest challenge. People can visit beaches all around the state, from the Keys to Jacksonville and around the Gulf Coast to the Panhandle. Keep in mind the marketing budgets in larger destinations can be 10x higher than ours. So, everything we do has to be effective in engaging travelers.

On the different eras of “the Space Coast”:

The term “Space Coast” isn’t new. For years, people associated it with the Apollo era, back when visitors would come in hopes of meeting an astronaut. As the shuttle program wound down, there were assumptions that everything here would shut down with it. That became another big challenge: educating travelers that we’ve modernized with really nice hotels and we’ve moved into a new phase.

“No other destination has an active space center and miles of world-class beaches.”

On reviving “the Space Coast”:

The first thing I wanted us to figure out when I started in 2019 was this: How do we excite potential visitors again? We decided to lean back into “Space Coast” because those words say it all. No other destination has an active space center and miles of world-class beaches. So, we positioned that message with specific locations — “Melbourne on Florida’s Space Coast” or “Titusville on Florida’s Space Coast.” It’s a natural jumpstart into our exclusive story. And now, with SpaceX and Blue Origin, we have as many as 10 launches a month. What had become old is new again — only better.

On lessons learned in boosting your brand:

I worked 16 years with Visit Orlando, and we spent a lot of energy trying to brand Orlando apart from the theme parks. It took until probably 2012 until travelers globally really knew Orlando. That’s the nature of marketing. Be patient. When you think about it, �鶹ԭ�� followed a similar trajectory to national recognition.

On the unforgettable lesson he learned as a �鶹ԭ�� student:

I was a journalism guy, the sports editor of �鶹ԭ��’s student newspaper, The Central Florida Future. I’d call people and say, “This is Peter from The Future,” which immediately got their attention. One class, organizational communication, gave me a look into the real world of business. For a group project, we went to a company to ask leaders and employees, separately, about communication. The employees said communication wasn’t so great. The leaders said it was fine. In fact, they shut down our presentation. I’ve applied that lesson to my own work — encourage communication and listen with an open mind.

On the (hopefully) lasting lesson he shared as a �鶹ԭ�� adjunct professor:

I’d tell students to use their voices. Don’t be passive. During my career in tourism, I’ve learned a lot from young graduates and interns. Your thoughts matter. Also, learn everything possible about business in school. Some of it might seem irrelevant, but you never know when that knowledge will benefit you. Look at me.

On his job being very, very personal:

When I was 14 our family moved from Connecticut to Melbourne, Florida. I spent a lot of time at the places we’re talking about now — the beach, Merrit Island National Wildlife Refuge, Lori Wilson Park. When the opportunity came up to return and live near my mom who’d been in the same house all those years, it was emotional for me. I never thought I’d have a business life along the Space Coast, but — divine intervention. It’s another reason I’m in awe every day, and why I want as many people as possible to come and be awed, too. Once you’ve experienced this, you’ll be back.

From the Ground Up

Robert Stephens — Thu, 09 Jan 2025 16:20:11 +0000

To this day, Carol Ann Logue calls herself “a farm girl from Arkansas,” even after living in Florida for more than 40 years. She’s worked at �鶹ԭ�� for the past 23 years, with the last seven dedicated to nurturing economic development in the area as director of �鶹ԭ��’s . Yet you can still detect hints of a Razorback accent during conversations with Logue. The character traits she cultivated from watching the fields as a child — patience, thoughtfulness and optimism — are also evident. Now she’s relying on her instinct to trust that everything will flourish under the care of others.

In April, Logue will retire from her leading role at �鶹ԭ��.

“The timing couldn’t be better,” Logue says. “We have no crisis, no funding gap — just a healthy business environment [for] the foreseeable future. I can walk away with peace of mind that our ‘grow your own’ approach has become the hallmark of economic development in Central Florida.”

Under Logue’s guidance, the Innovation Districts and Incubation Program has cultivated growth for hundreds of startups, resulting in thousands of jobs and tens of millions of dollars for the local economy from a medley of industries. Logue’s approach to her work has captured the attention of colleagues across the country, serving as a testament to her strong work ethic and humility.

“I’ve followed a crooked path,” Logue says, “but I’ve never forgotten where I came from.”

The Farm Girl From Arkansas

Logue learned how to drive from the seat of a tractor at age 10. She can’t begin to count how many piglets she bottle-fed or the hours she spent picking, cleaning and canning vegetables from her family’s enormous garden. Logue’s granddad ran the general store. Her father earned a degree in agricultural engineering, but didn’t stray from his rural roots where everyone knew each other as neighbors and helped each other as friends.

“My upbringing close to the Earth prepared me to work with entrepreneurs even back when I had other plans,” Logue says.

Those plans were supposed to include medical school, however, along the way she discovered the world of technology at the University of Arkansas library, where early online databases fed her hunger for knowledge. From there, Logue’s route bounced around the south — to Louisiana State University for a master’s degree, back to Arkansas to teach and eventually to the University of Florida (UF) in 1984 where she helped run an information center with rocket scientists.

“Agriculture is the original STEM field,” Logue says of the connection between farming and technology.

While at UF, she would attend occasional business conferences in Orlando, and each time she became more intrigued about the blossoming potential of the area and the young university on its east side. At one conference in the aftermath of 9/11, she heard a new strategy outlined — for the region, for �鶹ԭ��, and, as Logue believed, for her own career.

“The ground had shaken after 9/11,” she says. “It forced every business and municipality to change. During that conference, I heard how technology and young startups in Orlando were poised to diversify the economy beyond tourism. Everyone wanted to participate — the city, the county, private enterprise. And at the center of it all: �鶹ԭ��. It wasn’t just talk. Innovation would drive entrepreneurship, and entrepreneurship would grow the greater community. I’d always wanted to be in a place where I could see those kinds of long-term results.”

Laying the Groundwork for Orlando’s Economic Boom

When Logue arrived at �鶹ԭ�� a few months later, she saw the equivalent of a big field — one incubator in one building. She felt at home. Working with entrepreneurs reminded her of planting seeds. Developing partnerships with the city and county was like watering and fertilizing.

“Just like it is when you’re growing crops, you keep watch, knowing there will be factors outside your control,” Logue says. “But you keep nurturing, keep fending off pests and focus on the harvest ahead.”

Orlando’s business culture today is very different than it was in 2002. The region once known for a busy airport and theme parks now garners global attention for technology and innovation clusters that feed a robust local economy. There’s expertise in virtual reality, augmented reality, digital twinning, modeling, simulation, gaming and theme park advancements. All of this has been spun into a wide range of business interests: education, hospitality, medicine, real estate, smart city planning and the space program. Trace any of the vendors back to their roots and you’ll probably find yourself still standing in Central Florida.

This is the fruit reaped from sowing locally, and it’s due in large part to �鶹ԭ�� — and to Logue.

“Colleagues from around the country ask how we do this,” she says. “I tell them �鶹ԭ�� always has a seat at the table. During conversations, you can’t tell who works for government, who works for industry and who works for �鶹ԭ��. It’s truly collaborative, which is helpful for entrepreneurs. At the heart of it, we share a goal to drive a better quality of life from within.”

RINI Technologies, one of the first businesses in the incubator program when Logue arrived in 2002, now offers leading research and development from a 12,000-square-foot facility just one mile from �鶹ԭ��’s main campus. It’s among the companies Logue and her team have helped grow from laboratory to marketplace.

The successes gained so much attention from the U.S. Department of Defense that when it recognized a need for rapid innovation in 2019, it launched the Central Florida Tech Grove and appointed Logue as director. Five years later, 11 government entities now collaborate with Tech Grove, where the primary mission to grow the defense industrial base for each entity has expanded overall economic vitality. Business leaders from around the world see the ease of integrating with other companies and government and want to know how to be a part of it.

They call the person at the center of the progress: Logue.

“It isn’t me,” she says with down-to-earth modesty. “It’s the vibrant economic environment here. I know it will be sustained long after I leave.”

Her Ambitious To-do List for Retirement

Logue plans to take online courses in history, photography and possibly artificial intelligence. There are books to read and documentaries to watch about people, WWI and WWII. She’ll vacation in Eastern Europe and visit her grandkids in Alaska. But near the top of the list is a trip she’s been thinking about for a long time. This trip will be to the pastures of Lexington, Kentucky, and the foothills and flatlands of Arkansas — home.

“Back to the place that prepared me in ways I never saw coming,” she says.

Then Logue and her husband, Ed, will return to Florida and take a breath before she makes time for a once-familiar hobby.

“I’m going to have a big garden,” she says, “and I look forward to spending a lot of time in it.”

�鶹ԭ�� Economist: ‘DOGE or DO(d)GE Ball? Something Has to Change.’

Christine Dellert Mullon — Thu, 12 Dec 2024 21:39:34 +0000

Faced with an ever-mounting national debt, �鶹ԭ�� economist Sean Snaith welcomes “dramatic changes” to federal spending.

But he’s skeptical about the incoming administration’s Department of Government Efficiency, or “DOGE,” to usher in needed reforms, Snaith writes in his , out this morning.

“I suspect it will turn into a Beltway version of dodgeball, with the bureaucracy and its supporters frantically running around, trying to avoid getting hit by the ‘DOGE ball,'” he says. “Just like in any elementary school PE class, there’ll be lots of shouting and chaos. But in the end, most of the systems and spending will remain intact.”

Ultimately, the rapidly rising national debt—now approaching $36.2 trillion—and the increasing burden of servicing that debt add to the air of uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy’s outlook, Snaith says.

“Every trillion dollars in debt service is money that can’t be committed to infrastructure, helping the impoverished, healthcare for seniors or national defense—something has to change,” he says.

Additional highlights from Snaith’s four-year quarterly U.S. economic forecast are:

The labor market is cooling. Payroll job growth of 2.3% in 2023 is decelerating steadily starting at 1.6% in 2024, to 1.0% in 2025 and just 0.1% in 2026 before stopping in 2027.
Despite resistance to the effects of the Fed tightening thus far, the headline unemployment rate (U-3) is expected to gradually rise to 4.5% in 2027. The resiliency of the labor market played a large role thus far in keeping a recession at bay.
High energy prices, food costs and housing costs steadily eroded consumers’ purchasing power. Recently, wage growth has surpassed inflation to stem households’ budgetary bleeding.
Core consumer price inflation will continue its slow decline. By the end of 2026, headline inflation will be close to the Fed’s target level of 2%, but the Fed has already started to cut interest rates. If progress stalls, the Fed may have to pause cuts in 2025.
Real consumption spending eased to 2.5% in 2023 due to falling real wages. Spending ticked up to 2.7% in 2024 and will continue to do so, hitting 3.0% in 2025. Growth will slow to 2.5% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027.
Real GDP growth surged to 5.8% in 2021. It eased to 2.5% in 2022, before bumping to 2.9% in 2023, and it will remain at 2.8% for 2024. Growth will slow to 2.7% in 2025. From there, real GDP growth will drift downward hitting 1.8% in 2027.
High prices combined with 7%-plus mortgage rates eroded housing demand. However, persistently low inventories will support the sector. Housing starts declined from 1.6 million in 2022 to 1.42 million in 2023 and will ease, reaching 1.36 million in 2024. But as interest rates decline, starts will creep up reaching 1.44 million in 2027.

Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the director of �鶹ԭ��’s Institute for Economic Forecasting and a nationally recognized economist in the field of economics, forecasting, analysis and market sizing. He has been recognized by Bloomberg News as one of the country’s most accurate economic forecasters and has served as a consultant for both local governments and multi-national corporations. Before joining �鶹ԭ��’s College of Business, Snaith held faculty positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. More of Snaith’s work is .

�鶹ԭ�� Economist: U.S. Economy’s ‘False Signals’ Muddy the Waters

Christine Dellert Mullon — Wed, 21 Feb 2024 16:17:04 +0000

The latest U.S. economic forecast of Sean Snaith, the director of �鶹ԭ��’s Institute for Economic Forecasting and a nationally recognized economist in forecasting, analysis and market sizing, compares the trickiness of predicting a slowdown with the fickleness of fly fishing. In both, he says, indicators can give false signals.

“The economic indicators that were reliable signals of a recession in the past are giving false signals in the new economic riverbed forged by the pandemic policies,” Snaith says in his released this morning.

Labor market and supply chain disruptions, massive monetary and fiscal stimulus, soaring energy prices and high inflation have at least temporarily altered the inner workings of the economy, says Snaith.

The results showed second-guessing, revised predictions and less confidence in the indicators that previously signaled economic slowdowns. Still, Snaith anticipates growth slowing in 2024 and unemployment rising. Job growth will slow to a trickle, he says, but should not turn negative.

Several additional highlights from Snaith’s four-year quarterly U.S. forecast include:

Core consumer price inflation will continue its slow decline, but rising energy prices are likely to push the headline consumer price index higher in 2024. By the end of 2024, headline inflation will be close to the Federal Reserve’s target level of 2%, but the Fed has signaled that interest rate cuts could happen before this target is reached. This may prove to be a mistake.

U.S. consumers powered the post-Covid recovery. Following the end of most lockdowns, consumers were ready to spend. But high energy prices, food costs and housing costs have steadily eroded their purchasing power. Credit card debt and drawing down savings have temporarily patched the hole in their monthly budgets, and this loss of purchasing power has set the table for the economic slowdown that is approaching.

Despite resistance to the effects of Fed tightening thus far, the headline unemployment rate (U-3) is expected to gradually rise from 3.6% to 4.3% in 2027. The resiliency of the labor market has played a large role in keeping a recession at bay.

The housing market remains tight. High prices combined with 7% mortgage rates have eroded demand. However, persistently low inventories will underpin the sector. Housing starts declined from 1.6 million in 2022 to 1.4 million in 2023 and will slowly ease, reaching 1.3 million in 2027.

Higher interest rates and a presidential election will combine to suppress investment spending in 2024 and likely into 2025, and we expect spending to decelerate in both these years.

We are projecting national deficits through 2027 that will consistently average more than $1.75 trillion. The amount that the projected deficits will add to the national debt over the next four years will be $7 trillion, pushing the total national debt to more than $41.2 trillion and a debt-to-GDP ratio of nearly 130%. Slower-than-projected economic growth or a recession would also push projected deficits higher, though the possibility of faster-than-projected economic growth would help mitigate the growth of these deficits on the debt-to-GDP ratio.

�鶹ԭ�� Economist: Recession Keeps on ‘Slippin’, Slippin’, Slippin’ Into the Future’

Christine Dellert Mullon — Wed, 06 Dec 2023 16:47:00 +0000

In his final national forecast of the year, Sean Snaith pulls out his favorite playlist to predict what’s next for the U.S. economy. Top hits (and an accompanying Spotify playlist) include a recession that’s “slipping, slipping, slipping into the future” and Beastie Boys-like “slow and low” growth next year.

What’s more, Snaith, director of �鶹ԭ��’s , says that fears of a recession happening are consistent with past economic downturns. In his latest forecast released today, he references the more than 40% of economists surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia who predict a decline in real GDP during the first quarter of 2024.

“Two-plus years of falling real income have consumers walking a financial tightrope, and the safety net of a still-tight labor market may be the only thing between a slip-up and a plunge into a recession,” Snaith says. “The anxiety of watching this high-wire act will be a persistent companion over the next year.”

The U.S. economy is entering a period of slower growth that could last for two years, Snaith says, citing the unintended consequence of an over-reliance on pandemic-era fiscal stimulus and extremely loose monetary policy.

“Multi-trillion-dollar deficits fueled a spending frenzy in an environment of very low interest rates that continued for nearly three years,” Snaith adds. “That spending was the spark that ignited inflation and ultimately sowed the seeds of the impending slowdown.”

Listen to Snaith’s full forecast playlist .

See other highlights from his below:

While the labor market has shown little signs of a coming recession, the impending slowdown will not be as innocuous. Unemployment will rise as 2024 progresses, continuing into 2025. Job growth will turn negative, but not as sharply as during the 2008-09 and 2020 recessions.
A softening of real GDP growth will slow to 1.2% in 2024 and further decline to 1% in 2025, before rising to 1.9% in 2027. As the Beastie Boys would say, “Slow and low, that is the tempo,” for the next couple of years at least.
U.S. consumers have been hit hard by high inflation for two years, and even though wage and salary growth are the strongest they’ve been in years, the cost of living has eroded all those wage gains and then some. Even though workers have more dollars in their paychecks, the amount of goods and services they’ve been able to purchase has been declining. This declining purchasing power has helped set the stage for a slowing economy.
After reaching nearly 1.6 million in 2021, housing starts will fall to 1.39 million in 2023, before leveling out for several years and hitting a level slightly below 1.28 million in 2027. Higher mortgage rates and high home prices are headwinds — as is the economic slowdown — and all three will continue to shape the residential sector for the next two years. The ongoing shortage of housing that is plaguing the sector in many parts of the country will provide support preventing starts from falling in a more dramatic fashion.
Deficits through 2027 will consistently average nearly $1.8 trillion. The amount that the projected deficits will add to the national debt over the next four years will be more than $7.1 trillion, pushing the total national debt to more than $40.8 trillion and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 130%. With higher interest rates in the economy, the burden of servicing this debt will rise as well.

Snaith is a nationally recognized economist in the field of economics, forecasting, analysis and market sizing. He has been recognized by Bloomberg News as one of the country’s most accurate economic forecasters and has served as a consultant for both local governments and multi-national corporations. Before joining �鶹ԭ��’s College of Business, Snaith held faculty positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. More of Snaith’s work is available on the Institute for Economic Forecasting site.

The Kinks in Our Supply Chain

Robert Stephens — Wed, 17 Nov 2021 16:37:48 +0000

In the year 2020, we endured a worldwide pandemic, local lockdowns, and the “Great Toilet Paper Shortage.” The latter foreshadowed an ongoing sequence of shortages: lumber, refrigerators, meat, cars, and most recently, artificial Christmas trees.

“History is being made before our eyes,” says Muge Yayla-Kullu, associate professor of supply-chain management at �鶹ԭ��. “What we’re experiencing is the result of an avalanche of problems.”

In lead-up to holiday shopping, we’re sitting in the middle of an unprecedented lesson in basic economics. Demand is high and supply is low, or more specifically, it’s stuck in factories, ports, and warehouses. The U.S. Department of Labor recently reported that the warehouse industry has a record 490,000 job openings. The American Trucking Association says it’s short 80,000 drivers, which spells trouble when you consider that trucks transport 72% of our freight. Some trucking companies are offering $15,000 bonuses to recruit drivers.

“We’re accustomed to dealing with limited supplies of certain products this time of year, like PlayStations or certain toys,” says �鶹ԭ�� Associate Professor of Marketing Axel Stock, who’s researched product scarcity for 20 years. “Businesses will create scarcity as a strategy to drive up demand, which allows them to increase prices. The scarcity today is different. It’s due to external reasons, but for consumers the result is the same.”

Higher prices. Fewer choices. Tests of patience. Stock and Yayla-Kullu emphasize these words: Do not panic. Please.

“Panic buying only make things worse,” says Yayla-Kullu. “We’ve seen enough mistakes already.”

What exactly is going on?

Yayla-Kullu has been teaching about possible crises in the global supply chain every semester for the past 18 years, and prior to that she worked in business and banking.

Yayla-Kullu merged her business experience with a passion for researching supply-chain operations, and now shares her findings with �鶹ԭ�� students who will become the next global business leaders. She stresses the need for companies to invest in operational hedging, where a team envisions worst-case scenarios and prepares for disruptions in the supply chain — fires, labor strikes, ships stuck in the Suez Canal. In December 2019, she could sense we were on the cusp of a new lesson.

“When manufacturing stopped in Asia because of COVID-19, I told my students to think a year, two years, five years ahead,” she says. “A major logistics problem is coming. Production will slow. Demand will slow. But then demand will go back up quickly, and the supply of products will be out of balance. Yes, the pandemic is once in a lifetime, but more business leaders should have forecasted the bottlenecks that we’re seeing.”

Stock had his suspicions in June, just as businesses in the U.S. seemed to be getting back on track. A month after ordering a new soccer uniform for his 9-year-old son, the team had to take the field in sponsorless jerseys. The new uniforms still hadn’t arrived by early November.

“Much of my research is an outgrowth from personal experiences,” says Stock. “When we ordered our unforms, people all over the world were ordering products. The countries where most manufacturing takes place were dealing with vaccine shortages and occasional closures. The facilities were overwhelmed. Then everything shipped at the same time. Ports backed up and there weren’t enough workers, but people are spending.”

Computer chips are good examples. They’re the brains in some of the most wished-for holiday presents: laptops. Phones. TVs. Cars.

“If a car is made with 30,000 small parts, but one computer chip is unavailable … you can’t finish the car,” says Yayla-Kullu. The same goes for kitchen appliances and video games. She urges for a second time: “Don’t panic.”

And Stock reassures things aren’t as bad as they might seem.

“We always come up with solutions to problems,” he says.

What should we do?

At the start of the pandemic, Yayla-Kullu saw what Floridians see during a hurricane threat — empty shelves.

“I begged people not to buy too much toilet paper or disinfectant. It’s the same now with pumpkin-pie filling,” Yayla-Kullu says. “Just buy one of whatever you need, and we’ll get back to normal faster.”

Overbuying, as she tells students, causes “the bullwhip effect.” A retailer plans to sell one box of stuffing to each customer. Instead, the customers buy three. The warehouse has to triple its orders. The manufacturer has to triple output and labor. The supply chain is stressed. Prices go up.

“Everyone pays,” says Yayla-Kullu. “When I encourage companies to be more flexible with planning, the same goes for consumers. The entire system works better when we’re all flexible.”

Stock takes the optimistic view that a 30% shortage on a tablet, for instance, means 70% of capacity is available either in person or online.

“The products are out there. You might need to buy a different model or choose a different color,” he says. “Or you can buy from a private party — some of those products are still in the original packaging.”

When will normalcy return?

The key to stability goes back to the basics: a balance between supply and demand. The current surge in demand, on top of holiday buying, will cause more hiccups into the new year. Then, adjustments made to open the pipeline will have to be readjusted.

“It will be the second half of 2022 before prices settle and this all clears up,” says Yayla-Kullu. “But business leaders will become better at risk-planning and the supply chain will be more flexible. Life will be better because we’ll be ready for the next crisis.”

The lessons for all of us: don’t panic, embrace variety, and maybe buy gift cards for the holidays or make a donation to your favorite charity. Or do like Stock and invest in an experience instead of a product.

“We’re taking a vacation for Christmas,” Stock says.

Historic Recovery Ahead for U.S. Economy in 2021, Predicts �鶹ԭ�� Economist

Josh Miranda ’16 — Wed, 03 Mar 2021 20:23:51 +0000

Fueled by a release of pent-up economic demand, unemployment will decline and Americans will spend more money through 2021, says Sean Snaith, renowned economist and director of �鶹ԭ��’s Institute for Economic Forecasting.

While consumer spending shrank by 3.9 percent in 2020 amid the recession, the institute’s first-quarter U.S. forecast predicts spending will accelerate to an increase of 5.4 percent this year and slow to an increase of 2.6 percent by 2024. CARES Act funding and the COVID-19 vaccine are quelling fear of the pandemic, prompting consumers to open their wallets and businesses to hire new employees. Snaith maintains a positive outlook on the months ahead, but it could take until 2022 for unemployment to fall back to pre-pandemic levels.

“Consumers are powering this recovery, and as the effects of the pandemic fade, consumer confidence will rise in tow.”

“Job growth will help ease the damage to the labor market from the lockdown, but the road to recovery will take at least another year,” Snaith says. “Consumers are powering this recovery, and as the effects of the pandemic fade, consumer confidence will rise in tow.”

In the report, Snaith predicts:

Job growth will continue. The growth rate will reach 3.9 percent in 2021, before slowing to 3.1 percent in 2022, 0.8 percent in 2023 and 0.5 percent in 2024.
Unemployment will decline to 4.2 percent by 2023.
The housing market will continue to progress and improve through 2021 –—New-home construction will rise from 1.38 million in 2020 to 1.56 million in 2021, then decelerate to 1.24 million by 2024.
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will accelerate from its historic 2020 low to 5.4 percent in 2021, before easing to 4 percent in 2022, 2.5 percent in 2023 and 2.4 percent in 2024.

With economic policy measures largely at a standstill in Washington D.C., public health initiatives will likely drive the speed of the nation’s economic recovery. The looming possibility of future lockdowns, vaccine distribution concerns and the nation’s understanding of the COVID-19 virus will have the greatest effect on the strength of the rebound.

Interest rates are similarly projected to remain near zero until mid-2024, when the Federal Reserve will slowly begin reversing the rate cuts made during the COVID-19 recession. The Fed’s delay to increase interest rates will help fuel investment growth once the pandemic subsides.

“This is all uncharted territory for monetary policy,” Snaith says. “Washington D.C. has been focused on politics more so than the economy and there is no previous playbook on how best to carry policy forward.”

For the complete U.S. report from the Institute for Economic Forecasting, visit .

The Institute for Economic Forecasting strives to provide complete, accurate and timely national, state and regional forecasts and economic analyses.

Snaith is a national expert in economics, forecasting, market sizing and economic analysis who authors quarterly reports about the state of the economy. Bloomberg News has named Snaith as one of the country’s most accurate forecasters for his predictions about the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, the Federal Funds rate.

�鶹ԭ�� Research Shows Vacation Home Rentals Boost Florida’s Economy by $27+ Billion Annually

Susan Vernon-Devlin — Mon, 10 Feb 2020 17:03:50 +0000

A new report by the �鶹ԭ��’s shows the economic impact of Florida’s vacation home rental industry exceeds $27 billion.

“Our research confirms that Florida’s lodging industry for vacations, beyond traditional hotels and resorts, which include rentals like houses, apartments and condos, boosts the economy significantly. Renters remain in the state longer, some up to 30 days, and spend more money, on average $1,000 per person,” says Robertico Croes, associate dean of research at �鶹ԭ�� Rosen College. “These long-term stays also provide more than 100,000 jobs for people supporting the vacation rental businesses.”

“Renters remain in the state longer, some up to 30 days, and spend more money, on average $1,000 per person.” — Robertico Croes, �鶹ԭ�� associate dean

The report notes several other key findings:

The 2018 economic impact of Florida’s vacation home rental industry represents $16.6 billion in direct spending and $10.8 billion in indirect spending, totaling $27.4 billion.
The direct spending amounts to nearly $46 million a day and approximately $1.9 million every hour.
The direct spending supports roughly 115,000 jobs with one job created for every $144,181 spent.
In 2018, the total amount of tourists staying in vacation rental homes in Florida was 14,233,274, which equates to 11.2 percent of the total 127 million tourists that came to Florida in 2018.

The report focuses on 25 Florida counties: Bay, Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Collier, Duval, Escambia, Flagler, Franklin, Gulf, Hillsborough, Lee, Manatee, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Nassau, Okaloosa, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pinellas, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Volusia and Walton. The research shows that when combined, these 25 counties include 89.3 percent of the total amount of registered vacation rental homes like Airbnbs and condos in the state of Florida.

“Floridians have long-known that the state’s vacation home rental industry has a significant impact on our economy, but the numbers in this report are simply staggering,” says Florida Realtors President Barry Grooms, a realtor and co-owner of Sarabay Suncoast Realty Inc. in Bradenton.

“Having fresh vacation rental industry data at our fingertips affords the industry and elected officials the opportunity to make informed and data driven decisions about public policy, which is critical here in the state of Florida,” says Denis Hanks, executive director of the Florida Vacation Rental Management Association.

The data and conclusions provided in the report were derived from data received from the three primary stakeholders involved in the vacation rental home sector: homeowners, management companies and tourists/visitors.

In total, 6,240 tourists, 1,748 vacation rental homeowners and 143 vacation rental home management companies were surveyed. That survey data was then triangulated with data from Key Data, the Survey Center of the Bureau of Economic and Business Center, Airbnb, the Florida Tourist Development Tax Association, multiple county tax collectors’ offices and the Florida Department of Revenue.

The report was commissioned by Florida Realtors and conducted in partnership with the Florida Vacation Rental Management Association. .

Florida’s Economic Output will More than Double by 2049, Predicts �鶹ԭ�� Economist

Josh Miranda ’16 — Mon, 22 Jul 2019 13:52:19 +0000

The total value of goods and services produced in Florida is expected to increase by more than 2.5 times the current value, reaching more than $4.6 trillion by 2049, according to Sean Snaith, national economist and director of . Bolstered by a projected 21.5 percent increase in the state population, the Institute’s latest Florida & Metro Economic Forecast anticipates significant growth over the next 30 years.

While Snaith admits it is difficult to predict a future that is 30 years away, his forecast serves individuals working in transportation planning, education, development, government or similar industries who must make decisions based on what the Florida economy may look like decades from now.

“We allow the forecasts to converge to trends driven by the fundamentals of economic growth,” Snaith says. “The projections will likely vary from the actual path the economy will follow over the next three decades.”

In the report, Snaith predicts:

Florida’s population will grow by an estimated 5.2 million residents to more than 26 million people by 2049.
Retail sales will more than double, surpassing 1.25 trillion over the next 30 years.
Florida’s labor force will grow by an average of 1.5 percent, but the state’s unemployment rate will rise to 3.8 percent by 2022.
The employment sectors that will see the biggest job expansion over the next four years are construction, professional and business services, and financial.
Housing starts will accelerate year over year, while house price appreciation will decelerate as supply catches up with demand.

In the short-term, the forecast predicts average economic growth will maintain a 3.1 percent annual increase through 2022 with tax cuts and faster wage/salary growth fueling the expansion. The state’s economy is simply holding steady after changes in federal policy sparked significant improvement in Florida’s economy dating back to 2017, Snaith says.

“Florida is poised for another two years of growth before slowing down in 2021 and 2022,” Snaith says. “This is still faster than the average of our forecasted growth for the U.S. economy over the same timeframe.”

Florida’s job market also remains ahead of the national labor market, and while Snaith expects Florida to keep the advantage, the forecast calls for a shrinking lead as the overall economic recovery continues to age. Job growth is expected to decelerate to 2.2 percent in 2019, 1.9 percent in 2020, 1.4 percent in 2021 and 1 percent in 2022.

As Florida creates more jobs, workers will likely bring home more money, according to the forecast. Personal income growth will average 3.1 percent through 2022, starting with 3 percent growth in 2019, rising to 3.6 percent in 2020 and slowing to 3.3 percent in 2021 and 2.6 percent in 2022. Boosted by the rise in household wealth and bigger paychecks, retail sales are projected to grow at an average pace of more than 3.95 percent through 2022.

“Overall, we are forecasting strong economic development in Florida over the next several years as well as continued growth in jobs,” Snaith says. “The improved prospect of finding a job will continue to put more Floridians back on the hunt for employment and also attract out-of-state job seekers.

The Institute for Economic Forecasting strives to provide complete, accurate and timely national, state and regional forecasts and economic analyses.

Snaith: Re-election Fears Will Drive Tax Reform Passage

Erika Hodges — Thu, 30 Nov 2017 18:15:08 +0000

The tax reform fuse is lit, but if it isn’t signed into law before the end of the year, �鶹ԭ�� economist Sean Snaith says, more than a few in the Republican-held Congress could be looking for work after the midterm elections.

“Reelection is the motivation that I maintain will eventually lead to the passage of tax reform,” said the director for the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at the �鶹ԭ�� College of Business in his final quarterly U.S economic forecast of 2017.

The House has passed a version of the bill, which is in the Senate with an administration goal of signing it into law by Christmas. The House bill proposes reducing the number of tax brackets, lowering rates for households while increasing standard deductions and child tax credits, and lowering the corporate tax rate while eliminating some tax breaks.

Snaith said to expect the Federal Reserve to initiate another 25-basis point hike in December. The Fed previously raised rates in June. The forecast notes stronger economic growth and higher inflation from Trump administration policies will continue a faster pace of hikes over the next three years, with the federal funds rate hitting 3.5 percent by the end of the first quarter of 2021.

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, which slowed to 1.5 percent in 2016, is forecasted to hit 2.3 percent in 2017 and 3.5 percent in 2018 before slipping to 3.2 percent in 2019 and 2.6 percent in 2020, as the Federal Reserve tightens interest rates and shrinks its balance sheet.

Average monthly payroll growth has decelerated the past three years and was further slowed by the aftereffects of Hurricane Irma, according to the forecast. Uncertainty and regulatory burden have been hindering payroll job growth, which slowed to 1.8 percent in 2016. The forecast shows payroll job growth slowing to 1.5 percent in 2017 before stabilizing at 1.6 percent for 2018-2020.

“Tax reform will boost job growth,” Snaith said, “but this late in a recovery, the effects will be short-lived.”

The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 3.8 percent in early 2019, and job growth will be enough to keep up with labor force growth through the end of the forecast horizon. Underemployment stands at 7.9 percent as of October 2017, but it also is forecasted to decline through 2021. The spread between unemployment and underemployment rates is down to 3.8 percentage points, the lowest since December 2007 when the Great Recession began.

The forecast states the foreign sector will continue to be a drag on U.S. growth. The recent weakening of the dollar will boost exports and depress imports, but faster GDP growth and higher interest rates will send the dollar higher again. As a result, net exports will continue to fall through 2021, and uncertainty over trade deals are expected to continue to cast a shadow over this sector.

The housing market, which continues to recover, is expected to slowly improve through 2020, even with rising interest rates. Housing starts are forecasted to rise from 1.2 million in 2017 to 1.71 million in 2021.

The Institute for Economic Competitiveness strives to provide complete, accurate and timely national, state and regional forecasts and economic analyses.