“But that uncertainty isn’t enough to push the economy into a recession,” says Snaith, director of 麻豆原创’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “Florida’s growth remains steady and resilient, for now.”

Snaith’s new forecast finds the Sunshine State still outperforming the nation, though several storm systems, both literal and fiscal, could darken the horizon.

Housing: Cooling Prices, Rising Inventories

After years of surging prices, Florida’s housing market is finally showing signs of balance. “The housing market is stabilizing,” Snaith says. 鈥淚nventories are normalizing, prices are easing, and markets are shifting from red-hot to sustainable.”

But affordability pressures persist. High insurance costs continue to weigh on homeowners, and a temporary lapse of the National Flood Insurance Program during the federal government shutdown leaves many Florida buyers unable to close on properties.

A Solid Economy with Some Risks

Florida’s expansion is expected to stay on track through 2028, even as national growth slows and federal spending battles continue.

Additional highlights from Snaith’s four-year forecast, covering the state and 25 metro areas, include:

• Housing starts have felt headwinds from higher mortgage and insurance rates. Total starts were 193,700 in 2022, before higher mortgage rates and a slowing economy began a deceleration that will slow starts to 156,008 in 2025. From there, starts will remain relatively steady before drifting higher to 158,459 in 2028.
• Florida’s nominal GDP will exceed $2.06 trillion in 2028, with real GDP at $1.45 trillion.
• Real Gross State Product will grow at an average annual rate of 2.1% from 2025鈥�2028.
• Job growth will slow from 1.2% in 2025 to 0.5% in 2028, still outpacing the national labor market through 2028.
• The unemployment rate will rise slowly to 3.8% by 2028, about 0.7 points below the nation.

Despite gradual cooling, Snaith says Florida’s demographics 鈥� retirees, job seekers and steady in-migration 鈥� will keep demand strong.

“Florida’s economy has proven time and again it can weather uncertainty,” he says. “The fundamentals remain sound, even if the forecast includes a few clouds.”

“Inflation nudged up in August, but wholesale prices are cooling and the downward labor market revisions have opened the door to rate cuts,” says Snaith, director of the 麻豆原创’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “The Fed was too slow to tackle inflation after the pandemic and then cut too soon a year ago. Let’s see if they can finally get it right.”

Snaith has long criticized the Federal Reserve’s pandemic-era playbook. But he says today’s backdrop, including softer wholesale prices and evidence that payroll growth was overstated, strengthens the case to begin a new phase of interest rate cuts.

“The Fed is independent, not infallible,” Snaith says. “This week’s decision is a chance to prove it’s paying attention.”

Alongside his critique, Snaith released his , a four-year outlook for the national economy. Highlights include:

• Growth slows: GDP slips from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, before rebounding to 2.6% in 2026 and easing again to 1.6% by 2028.
• Jobs steady: Unemployment holds near 4.3% through 2028 鈥� consistent with full employment.
• Spending cools: Consumption growth eases from 2.8% in 2024 to about 2% over the next several years.
• Budgets mending: Wages are finally outpacing inflation, helping households repair strained budgets, even as they wrestle with more than $1.1 trillion in credit-card debt.

But he’s skeptical about the incoming administration’s Department of Government Efficiency, or “DOGE,” to usher in needed reforms, Snaith writes in his聽, out this morning.

“I suspect it will turn into a Beltway version of dodgeball, with the bureaucracy and its supporters frantically running around, trying to avoid getting hit by the ‘DOGE ball,'” he says. “Just like in any elementary school PE class, there’ll be lots of shouting and chaos. But in the end, most of the systems and spending will remain intact.”

Ultimately, the rapidly rising national debt鈥攏ow approaching $36.2 trillion鈥攁nd the increasing burden of servicing that debt add to the air of uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy’s outlook, Snaith says.

“Every trillion dollars in debt service is money that can’t be committed to infrastructure, helping the impoverished, healthcare for seniors or national defense鈥攕omething has to change,” he says.

Additional highlights from Snaith’s four-year quarterly U.S. economic forecast are:

• The labor market is cooling. Payroll job growth of 2.3% in 2023 is decelerating steadily starting at 1.6% in 2024, to 1.0% in 2025 and just 0.1% in 2026 before stopping in 2027.
• Despite resistance to the effects of the Fed tightening thus far, the headline unemployment rate (U-3) is expected to gradually rise to 4.5% in 2027. The resiliency of the labor market played a large role thus far in keeping a recession at bay.
• High energy prices, food costs and housing costs steadily eroded consumers’ purchasing power. Recently, wage growth has surpassed inflation to stem households’ budgetary bleeding.
• Core consumer price inflation will continue its slow decline. By the end of 2026, headline inflation will be close to the Fed’s target level of 2%, but the Fed has already started to cut interest rates. If progress stalls, the Fed may have to pause cuts in 2025.
• Real consumption spending eased to 2.5% in 2023 due to falling real wages. Spending ticked up to 2.7% in 2024 and will continue to do so, hitting 3.0% in 2025. Growth will slow to 2.5% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027.
• Real GDP growth surged to 5.8% in 2021. It eased to 2.5% in 2022, before bumping to 2.9% in 2023, and it will remain at 2.8% for 2024. Growth will slow to 2.7% in 2025. From there, real GDP growth will drift downward hitting 1.8% in 2027.
• High prices combined with 7%-plus mortgage rates eroded housing demand. However, persistently low inventories will support the sector. Housing starts declined from 1.6 million in 2022 to 1.42 million in 2023 and will ease, reaching 1.36 million in 2024. But as interest rates decline, starts will creep up reaching 1.44 million in 2027.

Sean Snaith, Ph.D.,聽is the director of 麻豆原创’s Institute for Economic Forecasting and a nationally recognized economist in the field of economics, forecasting, analysis and market sizing. He has been recognized by Bloomberg News as one of the country’s most accurate economic forecasters and has served as a consultant for both local governments and multi-national corporations. Before joining 麻豆原创’s College of Business, Snaith held faculty positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. More of Snaith鈥檚 work is聽.

鈥淭he economic indicators that were reliable signals of a recession in the past are giving false signals in the new economic riverbed forged by the pandemic policies,鈥� Snaith says in his released this morning.

Labor market and supply chain disruptions, massive monetary and fiscal stimulus, soaring energy prices and high inflation have at least temporarily altered the inner workings of the economy, says Snaith.

The results showed second-guessing, revised predictions and less confidence in the indicators that previously signaled economic slowdowns. Still, Snaith anticipates growth slowing in 2024 and unemployment rising. Job growth will slow to a trickle, he says, but should not turn negative.

Several additional highlights from Snaith鈥檚 four-year quarterly U.S. forecast include:

• Core consumer price inflation will continue its slow decline, but rising energy prices are likely to push the headline consumer price index higher in 2024. By the end of 2024, headline inflation will be close to the Federal Reserve鈥檚 target level of 2%, but the Fed has signaled that interest rate cuts could happen before this target is reached. This may prove to be a mistake.

• U.S. consumers powered the post-Covid recovery. Following the end of most lockdowns, consumers were ready to spend. But high energy prices, food costs and housing costs have steadily eroded their purchasing power. Credit card debt and drawing down savings have temporarily patched the hole in their monthly budgets, and this loss of purchasing power has set the table for the economic slowdown that is approaching.

• Despite resistance to the effects of Fed tightening thus far, the headline unemployment rate (U-3) is expected to gradually rise from 3.6% to 4.3% in 2027. The resiliency of the labor market has played a large role in keeping a recession at bay.

• The housing market remains tight. High prices combined with 7% mortgage rates have eroded demand. However, persistently low inventories will underpin the sector. Housing starts declined from 1.6 million in 2022 to 1.4 million in 2023 and will slowly ease, reaching 1.3 million in 2027.

• Higher interest rates and a presidential election will combine to suppress investment spending in 2024 and likely into 2025, and we expect spending to decelerate in both these years.

We are projecting national deficits through 2027 that will consistently average more than $1.75 trillion. The amount that the projected deficits will add to the national debt over the next four years will be $7 trillion, pushing the total national debt to more than $41.2 trillion and a debt-to-GDP ratio of nearly 130%. Slower-than-projected economic growth or a recession would also push projected deficits higher, though the possibility of faster-than-projected economic growth would help mitigate the growth of these deficits on the debt-to-GDP ratio.

What’s more, Snaith, director of 麻豆原创’s , says that fears of a recession happening are consistent with past economic downturns. In his latest forecast released today, he references the more than 40% of economists surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia who predict a decline in real GDP during the first quarter of 2024.

“Two-plus years of falling real income have consumers walking a financial tightrope, and the safety net of a still-tight labor market may be the only thing between a slip-up and a plunge into a recession,” Snaith says. “The anxiety of watching this high-wire act will be a persistent companion over the next year.”

The U.S. economy is entering a period of slower growth that could last for two years, Snaith says, citing the unintended consequence of an over-reliance on pandemic-era fiscal stimulus and extremely loose monetary policy.

“Multi-trillion-dollar deficits fueled a spending frenzy in an environment of very low interest rates that continued for nearly three years,” Snaith adds. “That spending was the spark that ignited inflation and ultimately sowed the seeds of the impending slowdown.”

Listen to Snaith’s full forecast playlist .

See other highlights from his below:

• While the labor market has shown little signs of a coming recession, the impending slowdown will not be as innocuous. Unemployment will rise as 2024 progresses, continuing into 2025. Job growth will turn negative, but not as sharply as during the 2008-09 and 2020 recessions.
• A softening of real GDP growth will slow to 1.2% in 2024 and further decline to 1% in 2025, before rising to 1.9% in 2027. As the Beastie Boys would say, 鈥淪low and low, that is the tempo,鈥� for the next couple of years at least.
• U.S. consumers have been hit hard by high inflation for two years, and even though wage and salary growth are the strongest they’ve been in years, the cost of living has eroded all those wage gains and then some. Even though workers have more dollars in their paychecks, the amount of goods and services they’ve been able to purchase has been declining. This declining purchasing power has helped set the stage for a slowing economy.
• After reaching nearly 1.6 million in 2021, housing starts will fall to 1.39 million in 2023, before leveling out for several years and hitting a level slightly below 1.28 million in 2027. Higher mortgage rates and high home prices are headwinds 鈥� as is the economic slowdown 鈥� and all three will continue to shape the residential sector for the next two years. The ongoing shortage of housing that is plaguing the sector in many parts of the country will provide support preventing starts from falling in a more dramatic fashion.
• Deficits through 2027 will consistently average nearly $1.8 trillion. The amount that the projected deficits will add to the national debt over the next four years will be more than $7.1 trillion, pushing the total national debt to more than $40.8 trillion and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 130%. With higher interest rates in the economy, the burden of servicing this debt will rise as well.

Snaith is a nationally recognized economist in the field of economics, forecasting, analysis and market sizing. He has been recognized by Bloomberg News as one of the country’s most accurate economic forecasters and has served as a consultant for both local governments and multi-national corporations. Before joining 麻豆原创’s College of Business, Snaith held faculty positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. More of Snaith鈥檚 work is available on the Institute for Economic Forecasting site.

In his聽latest quarterly Florida forecast, Snaith says the impact of a slowdown won’t stick to Florida as it has in past recessions.

鈥淔lorida鈥檚 economy today is more like Teflon. A lot of the effects of a national slowdown will just slide right off,鈥� Snaith says.

While the housing collapse in 2008-09 and the pandemic hit Florida鈥檚 economy particularly hard, Snaith says the next slowdown or recession won’t do as much damage because of the state’s ever-growing population and strong labor market.

鈥淎 recession is never good news,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut compared to what our state went through during the past two recessions, any pain we endure will be far less severe and won鈥檛 linger as long. And Florida’s economy won’t experience the worst from a national economic slowdown.鈥�

In Florida 鈥� and the rest of the country 鈥� Snaith predicts a slowing by the end of 2023 and through the start of 2024, but it’s unclear if this slowdown will rise to the level of a recession.

Housing Struggles Continue

The flip side of Florida’s growing population and strong economic growth means continued shortages in the state’s housing market, Snaith says.

鈥淲e鈥檝e had the fastest-growing population growth rate in the country feeding the demand for housing, and it’s running headlong into a depleted supply,鈥� he says. 鈥淭his is not a pathway to affordability.鈥�

Snaith does not forecast any drastic correction during the coming slowdown or recession and has seen prices stabilize in recent months, but that doesn’t mean housing prices will come down anytime soon for would-be buyers.

鈥淭he demand doesn鈥檛 seem to be abating, and it takes time for supply to catch up,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hat will continue to be an issue for the foreseeable future.鈥�

Additional highlights from Snaith鈥檚 four-year Florida and metro economic forecast include:

• From 2023-26, Florida鈥檚 economy, as measured by real gross state product (GSP), will expand at an average annual rate of 1.5%. Real GSP will decelerate during the economic slowdown as growth will slow to 0.5% in 2024 and 0.8% in 2025, then accelerate to 1.7% by 2026.
• Labor force growth in Florida will average 1.3% from 2023-26. After growing 3.9% in 2022, Florida鈥檚 labor force growth will fall to 2.3% in 2023, and a slowed economy labor force growth will average 1% during 2024-26. Florida’s unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in 2021 and 2.9% in 2022. The slowing economy will push the rate up to 3.1% in 2023, 4.4% in 2024, and 5% in 2025 and 2026.
• Housing starts have felt the bitter chill of higher mortgage rates. Total starts were 192,213 in 2022 鈥� before higher mortgage rates and worries of a slowing economy result in a deceleration in starts to 183,134 in 2023, 158,716 in 2024, 154,424 in 2025, and 150,981 in 2026.
• Real personal income growth will average 2.8% during 2023-26. Following an inflation-driven contraction in 2022, growth will hit 3% in 2026. Florida’s average growth will be 0.8 percentage points higher than the national rate over the 2023-26 four-year span.

Snaith is the director of 麻豆原创鈥檚 Institute for Economic Forecasting and a nationally recognized economist in analysis, economic forecasting and market sizing. Bloomberg News has recognized Snaith as one of the country’s most accurate economic forecasters, and he has served as a consultant for both local governments and multi-national corporations.

鈥淔lorida can鈥檛 escape a recession,鈥� says Snaith, the director of 麻豆原创鈥檚 Institute for Economic Forecasting. 鈥淏ut we won鈥檛 suffer like we did during the previous two. If Florida鈥檚 economy had been a hospital patient during 2020 or in 2008-09, its condition would have been somewhere between serious and critical. This time around, it will be good or stable 鈥� and probably even closer to good.鈥�

In his , released this morning, Snaith predicts the recession may even yield some relief for residents and businesses, such as an end to the rapid rise in housing costs and alleviating supply chain woes on everything from automobiles to appliances.

One benefit we鈥檙e already seeing, Snaith says, is a decline in oil and gas prices, which when coupled with sky-high housing and food prices have been a severe strain on Floridians鈥� budgets.

The 鈥楶asta Bowl Recession鈥� and Inflation

Even don鈥檛 preclude an economic slowdown, Snaith says.

While Florida鈥檚 already-strong labor market is poised to strengthen in light of the latest U.S. employment report, Snaith continues to predict his which he defines as a shallow slide into鈥攁nd eventually a gradual climb out of 鈥� a recession. (Think back to Snaith鈥檚 2009 , but this time wider with flatter curves.)

This new tableware-shaped recession will actually help the Federal Reserve in its fight to bring down inflation.

鈥淚t means the Fed will not have to raise interest rates as high as they otherwise would if the economy was still growing at the pace that it was in 2020 and 2021 when inflationary pressures were much stronger,鈥� Snaith says. 鈥淭he result is that the trade-off we would typically see between lower inflation and higher unemployment rates won鈥檛 be as large as it historically has.鈥�

Some additional highlights from Snaith鈥檚 latest four-year Florida forecast include:

• The impact of the 鈥淧asta Bowl Recession鈥� in Florida will continue to slowly manifest as 2023 progresses. There will not be large payroll job losses or very high unemployment rates as in the previous two recessions, but this mild recession will impact the labor market starting in 2023 and continuing into 2024.
• From 2023-26, Florida鈥檚 economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, will expand at an average annual rate of just 0.6%. However, Real Personal Income Growth will average 2% during 2023-26, and Florida鈥檚 average growth will be 0.3 percentage points higher than the national rate over the next four years.
• Labor force growth in Florida will average 0.8% from 2023-26. After growing 3% in 2022, Florida鈥檚 labor force growth will decelerate because of the recession in 2023-24, then accelerate in the final two years of our forecast.
• Florida鈥檚 unemployment rate fell to 4.6% in 2021 and then to 2.9% in 2022. The recession will push up the rate to 4.6% in 2023 and to 5.8% in 2024 before easing slightly to 5.4% in 2025 and 5% in 2026.

鈥淭he Pasta Bowl Recession began with a whimper and will end the same way in 2023,鈥� says Snaith, who dubbed it the Pasta Bowl Recession due to its low and shallow shape.

While the recession may not be deep, he expects it to last four quarters 鈥� representing the wide part of the bowl. In May 2009, Snaith accurately predicted the end of the Great Recession and forecasted the gradual recovery that followed as the Gravy Boat Recession. The institute releases quarterly U.S. and Florida economic forecasts authored by Snaith. Released today, the U.S. Forecast includes economic analyses and projections from 2022 to 2025.

In this report, Snaith predicts that:

• The 鈥渏obfull recession鈥� that characterizes the Pasta Bowl has been fueled by record declines in productivity. Payroll job growth of 3.8% in 2022, will turn negative in 2023 as the 鈥渏obfull recession鈥� transitions with job growth falling to -0.3%.
• Real consumption spending accelerated to 7.9% in 2021 but will ease to 2% in 2022, then to 1% in 2023 and then rise gradually to 1.8% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025.
• Consumer price inflation will begin a slow decline in the second half of 2022. Housing and food prices will slow the pace of this decline. By the end of 2023, inflation will be close to the Fed鈥檚 target level of 2% thanks to interest rate hikes and the Pasta Bowl Recession.
• Quarterly real GDP growth during the period 2022 Q1 through 2023 Q1, which includes the Pasta Bowl Recession, is expected to be -1.6% in 2022 Q1, -0.9% in 2022 Q2, -0.7% in 2022 Q3, -1.1% in 2022 Q4 and -0.5% in 2023 Q1.
• High prices plus rising mortgage rates are eroding demand in the housing market. Ultra-low inventories will underpin the sector. Housing starts will decline from 1.56 million in 2022 to 1.25 million in 2023 then hover at this level before ticking up to 1.30 million in 2025.
• 2 million job openings will provide a shock absorber for the impact of the recession on the labor market. The headline unemployment rate is expected to rise from 3.8% in 2022 to 6.6% late in 2024 before beginning a gradual decline in 2025.

鈥淭he pasta bowl recession in Florida will not be pleasant like a trip to Olive Garden,鈥� says Snaith, returning to the kitchen for his latest recession descriptor after coining the term 鈥榞ravy boat recession鈥� in 2009, 鈥渂ut there will be several benefits of an extended period of slower economic growth.鈥�

Florida鈥檚 economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, is expected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.4% from 2022-2025. Although it will not contract during the recession, growth will slow to 0.5% in 2023 and 2024 before accelerating in 2025.

Labor force growth in Florida is forecasted to average 1.4% from 2022-2025. After growing 2.5% in 2022, Snaith says, Florida鈥檚 labor force growth will slow from 2023-2024 before mildly accelerating in 2025.

Payroll job growth in Florida will begin to falter during the recession but not in every sector, Snaith says. After year-over-year growth of -4.9% in 2020, the labor market rebounded to 4.6% in 2021. With job growth expected to be 3.9% in 2022, the payroll employment will contract by 0.6% in 2023 and by 1.3% in 2024 before expanding 0.8% in 2025.

The unemployment rate that jumped from 3.3% in 2019 to 7.9% in 2020 fell to 4.8% in 2021 and will fall to 3.6% in 2022. The recession is expected to push up the rate to 4.9% in 2023 and to 5.8% before easing slightly to 5.7% in 2025.

Real personal income growth will average -0.7% during 2022-2025. Following a pullback in 2022, growth will average 1.7% through the end of the 2025 hitting 2.5% in that year. Florida鈥檚 average growth will be 0.5% higher than the national rate over that four-year span.

Housing starts will pick up going forward, Snaith forecasts, but not nearly fast enough to offset the large shortage of single-family housing in the short run. Total starts, which jumped from 156,762 in 2020 to 190,061 in 2021, will rise to 191,593 in 2022 before decelerating to 166,461 in 2023 and 161,911 in 2024. Total starts will tick up to 162,871 in 2025. Rapid house price appreciation will largely vanish over this period as supply catches up with demand tempered by rising mortgage rates, decreasing affordability and recession.

For the complete Florida & Metro Forecast, now including all 22 of Florida鈥檚聽 metropolitan areas, visit

The Institute for Economic Forecasting strives to provide complete, accurate and timely national, state and regional forecasts and economic analyses.

Snaith is a national expert in economics, forecasting, market sizing and economic analysis who authors quarterly reports about the state of the economy. Bloomberg News has named Snaith as one of the country鈥檚 most accurate forecasters for his predictions about the Federal Reserve鈥檚 benchmark interest rate, the Federal Funds rate.

With the Federal Reserve making its first interest rate hike in three years in March, the Institute for Economic Forecasting predicts the 0.25% increase will be the first of many.

鈥淭he Fed has not one, but two tightropes it must cross as it begins to tighten monetary policy: the raising of interest rates and the paring down of its now massive balance sheet,鈥� Snaith writes. 鈥淣avigating both simultaneously is a daunting task, and the risk that the Fed moves too quickly, or not quickly enough, is a significant one. The consequence of a policy misstep will likely be the onset of a recession.鈥�

Florida鈥檚 economy, as measured by real gross state product, will expand at an average annual rate of 3.1%. After contracting by 2.8% in 2020, real gross state product rose by 6.9% in 2021.

Payroll job growth in Florida will continue to outpace national job growth. After year-over-year growth of -5.2% in 2020, the labor market rebounded by 2.6% in 2021. Average job growth is expected to be 0.9 percentage points faster than the national economy, according to the forecast. Labor force growth in Florida will average 1.9% from 2022-2025, and strong payroll job creation will boost Florida鈥檚 labor market recovery.

Real personal income growth will average 2.4% during 2022-2025, and Florida鈥檚 average growth will be 0.6 percentage points higher than the national rate over that span.

The efforts to lower the state鈥檚 unemployment rate will continue, and Florida鈥檚 accelerating job creation will help. The unemployment rate, which fell from 7.9% in 2020 to 4.8% in 2021, will drop to 3.8% in 2022 and 3.5% in 2023 before rising to 3.9% in 2025.

The sectors expected to have the strongest average job growth during 2022-2025 include leisure and hospitality (7.6%), professional and business services (3.8%), and information (2.1%).Housing starts will pick up but not fast enough to offset the shortage of single-family housing in the short run, according to Snaith. The 190,061 total starts in 2021 will ease to 182,663 in 2022, 162,425 in 2023 and 156,911 in 2024 before rising to 157,178 in 2025. House price appreciation will decelerate over this period as supply catches up with demand tempered by rising mortgage rates and decreasing affordability.

For the complete Florida & Metro Forecast, now including all of Florida鈥檚 22 metropolitan areas, from the Institute for Economic Forecasting, visit .

The Institute for Economic Forecasting strives to provide complete, accurate and timely national, state and regional forecasts and economic analyses.

Snaith is a national expert in economics, forecasting, market sizing and economic analysis who authors quarterly reports about the state of the economy. Bloomberg News has named Snaith as one of the country鈥檚 most accurate forecasters for his predictions about the Federal Reserve鈥檚 benchmark interest rate, the Federal Funds rate.