“But that uncertainty isn’t enough to push the economy into a recession,” says Snaith, director of 麻豆原创’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “Florida’s growth remains steady and resilient, for now.”

Snaith’s new forecast finds the Sunshine State still outperforming the nation, though several storm systems, both literal and fiscal, could darken the horizon.

Housing: Cooling Prices, Rising Inventories

After years of surging prices, Florida’s housing market is finally showing signs of balance. “The housing market is stabilizing,” Snaith says. 鈥淚nventories are normalizing, prices are easing, and markets are shifting from red-hot to sustainable.”

But affordability pressures persist. High insurance costs continue to weigh on homeowners, and a temporary lapse of the National Flood Insurance Program during the federal government shutdown leaves many Florida buyers unable to close on properties.

A Solid Economy with Some Risks

Florida’s expansion is expected to stay on track through 2028, even as national growth slows and federal spending battles continue.

Additional highlights from Snaith’s four-year forecast, covering the state and 25 metro areas, include:

• Housing starts have felt headwinds from higher mortgage and insurance rates. Total starts were 193,700 in 2022, before higher mortgage rates and a slowing economy began a deceleration that will slow starts to 156,008 in 2025. From there, starts will remain relatively steady before drifting higher to 158,459 in 2028.
• Florida’s nominal GDP will exceed $2.06 trillion in 2028, with real GDP at $1.45 trillion.
• Real Gross State Product will grow at an average annual rate of 2.1% from 2025鈥�2028.
• Job growth will slow from 1.2% in 2025 to 0.5% in 2028, still outpacing the national labor market through 2028.
• The unemployment rate will rise slowly to 3.8% by 2028, about 0.7 points below the nation.

Despite gradual cooling, Snaith says Florida’s demographics 鈥� retirees, job seekers and steady in-migration 鈥� will keep demand strong.

“Florida’s economy has proven time and again it can weather uncertainty,” he says. “The fundamentals remain sound, even if the forecast includes a few clouds.”

“Inflation nudged up in August, but wholesale prices are cooling and the downward labor market revisions have opened the door to rate cuts,” says Snaith, director of the 麻豆原创’s Institute for Economic Forecasting. “The Fed was too slow to tackle inflation after the pandemic and then cut too soon a year ago. Let’s see if they can finally get it right.”

Snaith has long criticized the Federal Reserve’s pandemic-era playbook. But he says today’s backdrop, including softer wholesale prices and evidence that payroll growth was overstated, strengthens the case to begin a new phase of interest rate cuts.

“The Fed is independent, not infallible,” Snaith says. “This week’s decision is a chance to prove it’s paying attention.”

Alongside his critique, Snaith released his , a four-year outlook for the national economy. Highlights include:

• Growth slows: GDP slips from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, before rebounding to 2.6% in 2026 and easing again to 1.6% by 2028.
• Jobs steady: Unemployment holds near 4.3% through 2028 鈥� consistent with full employment.
• Spending cools: Consumption growth eases from 2.8% in 2024 to about 2% over the next several years.
• Budgets mending: Wages are finally outpacing inflation, helping households repair strained budgets, even as they wrestle with more than $1.1 trillion in credit-card debt.

But he’s skeptical about the incoming administration’s Department of Government Efficiency, or “DOGE,” to usher in needed reforms, Snaith writes in his聽, out this morning.

“I suspect it will turn into a Beltway version of dodgeball, with the bureaucracy and its supporters frantically running around, trying to avoid getting hit by the ‘DOGE ball,'” he says. “Just like in any elementary school PE class, there’ll be lots of shouting and chaos. But in the end, most of the systems and spending will remain intact.”

Ultimately, the rapidly rising national debt鈥攏ow approaching $36.2 trillion鈥攁nd the increasing burden of servicing that debt add to the air of uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy’s outlook, Snaith says.

“Every trillion dollars in debt service is money that can’t be committed to infrastructure, helping the impoverished, healthcare for seniors or national defense鈥攕omething has to change,” he says.

Additional highlights from Snaith’s four-year quarterly U.S. economic forecast are:

• The labor market is cooling. Payroll job growth of 2.3% in 2023 is decelerating steadily starting at 1.6% in 2024, to 1.0% in 2025 and just 0.1% in 2026 before stopping in 2027.
• Despite resistance to the effects of the Fed tightening thus far, the headline unemployment rate (U-3) is expected to gradually rise to 4.5% in 2027. The resiliency of the labor market played a large role thus far in keeping a recession at bay.
• High energy prices, food costs and housing costs steadily eroded consumers’ purchasing power. Recently, wage growth has surpassed inflation to stem households’ budgetary bleeding.
• Core consumer price inflation will continue its slow decline. By the end of 2026, headline inflation will be close to the Fed’s target level of 2%, but the Fed has already started to cut interest rates. If progress stalls, the Fed may have to pause cuts in 2025.
• Real consumption spending eased to 2.5% in 2023 due to falling real wages. Spending ticked up to 2.7% in 2024 and will continue to do so, hitting 3.0% in 2025. Growth will slow to 2.5% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027.
• Real GDP growth surged to 5.8% in 2021. It eased to 2.5% in 2022, before bumping to 2.9% in 2023, and it will remain at 2.8% for 2024. Growth will slow to 2.7% in 2025. From there, real GDP growth will drift downward hitting 1.8% in 2027.
• High prices combined with 7%-plus mortgage rates eroded housing demand. However, persistently low inventories will support the sector. Housing starts declined from 1.6 million in 2022 to 1.42 million in 2023 and will ease, reaching 1.36 million in 2024. But as interest rates decline, starts will creep up reaching 1.44 million in 2027.

Sean Snaith, Ph.D.,聽is the director of 麻豆原创’s Institute for Economic Forecasting and a nationally recognized economist in the field of economics, forecasting, analysis and market sizing. He has been recognized by Bloomberg News as one of the country’s most accurate economic forecasters and has served as a consultant for both local governments and multi-national corporations. Before joining 麻豆原创’s College of Business, Snaith held faculty positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. More of Snaith鈥檚 work is聽.

鈥淭he economic indicators that were reliable signals of a recession in the past are giving false signals in the new economic riverbed forged by the pandemic policies,鈥� Snaith says in his released this morning.

Labor market and supply chain disruptions, massive monetary and fiscal stimulus, soaring energy prices and high inflation have at least temporarily altered the inner workings of the economy, says Snaith.

The results showed second-guessing, revised predictions and less confidence in the indicators that previously signaled economic slowdowns. Still, Snaith anticipates growth slowing in 2024 and unemployment rising. Job growth will slow to a trickle, he says, but should not turn negative.

Several additional highlights from Snaith鈥檚 four-year quarterly U.S. forecast include:

• Core consumer price inflation will continue its slow decline, but rising energy prices are likely to push the headline consumer price index higher in 2024. By the end of 2024, headline inflation will be close to the Federal Reserve鈥檚 target level of 2%, but the Fed has signaled that interest rate cuts could happen before this target is reached. This may prove to be a mistake.

• U.S. consumers powered the post-Covid recovery. Following the end of most lockdowns, consumers were ready to spend. But high energy prices, food costs and housing costs have steadily eroded their purchasing power. Credit card debt and drawing down savings have temporarily patched the hole in their monthly budgets, and this loss of purchasing power has set the table for the economic slowdown that is approaching.

• Despite resistance to the effects of Fed tightening thus far, the headline unemployment rate (U-3) is expected to gradually rise from 3.6% to 4.3% in 2027. The resiliency of the labor market has played a large role in keeping a recession at bay.

• The housing market remains tight. High prices combined with 7% mortgage rates have eroded demand. However, persistently low inventories will underpin the sector. Housing starts declined from 1.6 million in 2022 to 1.4 million in 2023 and will slowly ease, reaching 1.3 million in 2027.

• Higher interest rates and a presidential election will combine to suppress investment spending in 2024 and likely into 2025, and we expect spending to decelerate in both these years.

We are projecting national deficits through 2027 that will consistently average more than $1.75 trillion. The amount that the projected deficits will add to the national debt over the next four years will be $7 trillion, pushing the total national debt to more than $41.2 trillion and a debt-to-GDP ratio of nearly 130%. Slower-than-projected economic growth or a recession would also push projected deficits higher, though the possibility of faster-than-projected economic growth would help mitigate the growth of these deficits on the debt-to-GDP ratio.

People were still in deep shock from their homeowners’ rates.

Not as many homebuyers were stirring, not even a mouse;

Four hundred grand just to buy a gingerbread house?!

Mortgage applicants filled out their paperwork with fear,

The 30-year fixed rate was three percent just last year!

High prices and insurance premiums made monthly payments grow,

As did Florida transplants seeking taxes so low.

I in my bed with a tear-stained Terrible Towel,

In my head no sugar-plum visions, just old Jerome Powell.

Inflation is slowing, but not at a brisk pace.

The Fed is the tortoise in a price stability race.

Then in front of my house, I heard a loud clatter.

Sleep interrupted again, at least it wasn’t my bladder.

I peeked out the window hoping to see Santa 鈥� no luck,

No sleigh, not one reindeer, just an Amazon truck.

The labor market shortage is taking its toll,

I hear there’s now self-checkout aisles at the North Pole.

Not enough workers have caused wages to rise,

Must be good for employees you鈥檇 be wrong to surmise.

Yes, paychecks the past two years are increasingly large,

But for ends to meet, households need to make a credit card charge.

One-point-one trillion-plus in credit card debt is dampening holiday cheer,

The federal government to consumers: “Please hold my beer.”

Trillions in deficit spending without any debating,

Have led two agencies to cut the U.S. credit rating.

The U.S. economy is now starting to slow,

Inflation-battered, debt-ridden consumers are forced to forgo.

In Florida the economy isn’t immune,

But during this economic slowdown we’ll hum a new tune.

The past two recessions wreaked havoc and pain,

No broken bones this go ’round, just more of a sprain.

Most of our ailments are because we are growing.

Into our state a river of people keeps flowing.

And to the NCAA, Santa, bring lots of coal,

Naughty isn鈥檛 the word for what was done to the ‘Noles.

Our beloved Knights are now in the Big Twelve,

Albeit with an athletic budget no bigger than elves.

Over time we can hope that budget will grow.

In the meantime, it鈥檚 Gasparilla 鈥� that’s eight bowl games in a row!

So, here’s to the New Year and hope for the best,

Health and happiness from Destin down to Key West.

You can read Snaith鈥檚 full Florida economic forecast at .

What’s more, Snaith, director of 麻豆原创’s , says that fears of a recession happening are consistent with past economic downturns. In his latest forecast released today, he references the more than 40% of economists surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia who predict a decline in real GDP during the first quarter of 2024.

“Two-plus years of falling real income have consumers walking a financial tightrope, and the safety net of a still-tight labor market may be the only thing between a slip-up and a plunge into a recession,” Snaith says. “The anxiety of watching this high-wire act will be a persistent companion over the next year.”

The U.S. economy is entering a period of slower growth that could last for two years, Snaith says, citing the unintended consequence of an over-reliance on pandemic-era fiscal stimulus and extremely loose monetary policy.

“Multi-trillion-dollar deficits fueled a spending frenzy in an environment of very low interest rates that continued for nearly three years,” Snaith adds. “That spending was the spark that ignited inflation and ultimately sowed the seeds of the impending slowdown.”

Listen to Snaith’s full forecast playlist .

See other highlights from his below:

• While the labor market has shown little signs of a coming recession, the impending slowdown will not be as innocuous. Unemployment will rise as 2024 progresses, continuing into 2025. Job growth will turn negative, but not as sharply as during the 2008-09 and 2020 recessions.
• A softening of real GDP growth will slow to 1.2% in 2024 and further decline to 1% in 2025, before rising to 1.9% in 2027. As the Beastie Boys would say, 鈥淪low and low, that is the tempo,鈥� for the next couple of years at least.
• U.S. consumers have been hit hard by high inflation for two years, and even though wage and salary growth are the strongest they’ve been in years, the cost of living has eroded all those wage gains and then some. Even though workers have more dollars in their paychecks, the amount of goods and services they’ve been able to purchase has been declining. This declining purchasing power has helped set the stage for a slowing economy.
• After reaching nearly 1.6 million in 2021, housing starts will fall to 1.39 million in 2023, before leveling out for several years and hitting a level slightly below 1.28 million in 2027. Higher mortgage rates and high home prices are headwinds 鈥� as is the economic slowdown 鈥� and all three will continue to shape the residential sector for the next two years. The ongoing shortage of housing that is plaguing the sector in many parts of the country will provide support preventing starts from falling in a more dramatic fashion.
• Deficits through 2027 will consistently average nearly $1.8 trillion. The amount that the projected deficits will add to the national debt over the next four years will be more than $7.1 trillion, pushing the total national debt to more than $40.8 trillion and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 130%. With higher interest rates in the economy, the burden of servicing this debt will rise as well.

Snaith is a nationally recognized economist in the field of economics, forecasting, analysis and market sizing. He has been recognized by Bloomberg News as one of the country’s most accurate economic forecasters and has served as a consultant for both local governments and multi-national corporations. Before joining 麻豆原创’s College of Business, Snaith held faculty positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. More of Snaith鈥檚 work is available on the Institute for Economic Forecasting site.

In his聽latest quarterly Florida forecast, Snaith says the impact of a slowdown won’t stick to Florida as it has in past recessions.

鈥淔lorida鈥檚 economy today is more like Teflon. A lot of the effects of a national slowdown will just slide right off,鈥� Snaith says.

While the housing collapse in 2008-09 and the pandemic hit Florida鈥檚 economy particularly hard, Snaith says the next slowdown or recession won’t do as much damage because of the state’s ever-growing population and strong labor market.

鈥淎 recession is never good news,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut compared to what our state went through during the past two recessions, any pain we endure will be far less severe and won鈥檛 linger as long. And Florida’s economy won’t experience the worst from a national economic slowdown.鈥�

In Florida 鈥� and the rest of the country 鈥� Snaith predicts a slowing by the end of 2023 and through the start of 2024, but it’s unclear if this slowdown will rise to the level of a recession.

Housing Struggles Continue

The flip side of Florida’s growing population and strong economic growth means continued shortages in the state’s housing market, Snaith says.

鈥淲e鈥檝e had the fastest-growing population growth rate in the country feeding the demand for housing, and it’s running headlong into a depleted supply,鈥� he says. 鈥淭his is not a pathway to affordability.鈥�

Snaith does not forecast any drastic correction during the coming slowdown or recession and has seen prices stabilize in recent months, but that doesn’t mean housing prices will come down anytime soon for would-be buyers.

鈥淭he demand doesn鈥檛 seem to be abating, and it takes time for supply to catch up,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hat will continue to be an issue for the foreseeable future.鈥�

Additional highlights from Snaith鈥檚 four-year Florida and metro economic forecast include:

• From 2023-26, Florida鈥檚 economy, as measured by real gross state product (GSP), will expand at an average annual rate of 1.5%. Real GSP will decelerate during the economic slowdown as growth will slow to 0.5% in 2024 and 0.8% in 2025, then accelerate to 1.7% by 2026.
• Labor force growth in Florida will average 1.3% from 2023-26. After growing 3.9% in 2022, Florida鈥檚 labor force growth will fall to 2.3% in 2023, and a slowed economy labor force growth will average 1% during 2024-26. Florida’s unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in 2021 and 2.9% in 2022. The slowing economy will push the rate up to 3.1% in 2023, 4.4% in 2024, and 5% in 2025 and 2026.
• Housing starts have felt the bitter chill of higher mortgage rates. Total starts were 192,213 in 2022 鈥� before higher mortgage rates and worries of a slowing economy result in a deceleration in starts to 183,134 in 2023, 158,716 in 2024, 154,424 in 2025, and 150,981 in 2026.
• Real personal income growth will average 2.8% during 2023-26. Following an inflation-driven contraction in 2022, growth will hit 3% in 2026. Florida’s average growth will be 0.8 percentage points higher than the national rate over the 2023-26 four-year span.

Snaith is the director of 麻豆原创鈥檚 Institute for Economic Forecasting and a nationally recognized economist in analysis, economic forecasting and market sizing. Bloomberg News has recognized Snaith as one of the country’s most accurate economic forecasters, and he has served as a consultant for both local governments and multi-national corporations.

The good news: Snaith, director of , is likely to keep his job 鈥� for now. The bad: even AI is worried about the national debt.

After last week’s downgrade of U.S. credit, the bots (and us humans) have reason for concern, Snaith says, pointing to his forecast prediction of a $40-trillion-plus national debt by 2026.

“At some point, it’s going to catch up to us with potentially catastrophic results,” he says. “Government budget management has become a series of resolutions, stand-offs and spending without any real discussions about fiscal priorities or consequences.”

Slower-than-projected economic growth, a recession and hiked interest rates would all push deficits even higher, says Snaith, whose predictions on these and more are available in his (complete with ChatGPT-composed song lyrics about inflation for the budding economist musicians out there).

A Recession is ‘Definitely Maybe’ On Its Way

Last month’s better-than-expected gross domestic product report suggests the United States might escape a recession this year, Snaith says.

Coupled with the strength of the labor market, what was once a near-certain downturn is now “definitely maybe,” Snaith forecasts in his report.

“All indicators said the U.S. was headed into recession, but you’ve got a resistant labor market that doesn’t want to buckle under the weight of these higher interest rates 鈥� something that historically should have happened,” Snaith says.

“Ultimately, it’s the labor market’s resiliency that is keeping any recession at arm’s length and stiff-arming it into the future.”

Still, Snaith says economic woes from inflation will persist for some time, and he predicts consumer spending may give way to the erosion of real income in the second half of 2023.

“Some of the recent slowdowns in inflation should provide a floor to keep consumers from falling too far, but the real damage has already been done,” Snaith says.

Additional highlights from Snaith鈥檚 four-year U.S. economic forecast include:

• During the 2023-26 period, federal government spending growth is going to be slightly negative, growing at an annual average pace of 1.1% and consistently averaging nearly $1.85 trillion. The amount that the projected deficits will add to the national debt over the next four years will be more than $7.4 trillion, pushing the total national debt to more than $40 trillion and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 141%.
• U.S. consumers powered the 2020 recovery. Following the end of most lockdowns, consumers were ready to spend. Since then, high energy prices, food costs and housing costs have steadily eroded their purchasing power. While credit card debt and drawing down savings have temporarily patched the hole in their monthly budgets, this loss of purchasing power has set the table for an approaching economic slowdown.
• The housing market remains tight. High prices plus 7% mortgage rates have eroded demand. However, persistently low inventories will reinforce the sector. Housing starts will decline from 1.6 million in 2022 to 1.4 million in 2023 to 1.3 million in 2024, and remain at this level through 2026.
• Core consumer price inflation will continue a slow decline in the latter half of 2023, even as energy prices are likely to push the headline consumer price index higher. By the end of 2024, inflation will be close to the Fed鈥檚 target level of 2%, and interest rate cuts are unlikely to happen before this target is reached.

Snaith is a nationally recognized economist in the field of economics, forecasting, analysis and market sizing. He has been recognized by Bloomberg News as one of the country鈥檚 most accurate economic forecasters and has served as a consultant for both local governments and multi-national corporations. Before joining 麻豆原创鈥檚 College of Business, Snaith held faculty positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific.

鈥淓conomically speaking, we have our flashlights, batteries, food and water,鈥� Snaith says of Florida鈥檚 economy on the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season. 鈥淐ompared to what Florida went through in the two previous recessions, the next recession will be more akin to a tropical depression.鈥�

Much of the reason is due to consumers鈥� continued spending on services and experiences 鈥攃ritical for Florida鈥檚 tourism sector.

Plus, Snaith, the director of 麻豆原创鈥檚 Institute for Economic Forecasting, explains: 鈥淔lorida鈥檚 continued population growth, which led the nation last year, and the associated wealth and income it has brought to the state serve as 鈥榮andbags鈥� against erosion of economic activity. Record-low unemployment and continued job growth are like our 鈥榮torm shutters,鈥� lessening the damage that a recession would do to our labor market.鈥�

Ultimately, Snaith says 鈥淔lorida鈥檚 economy is as well prepared to weather a national recession as we could be.鈥�

Snaith also adds that Florida鈥檚 red-hot housing market has cooled.

鈥淗igh prices coupled with rising mortgage rates have brought an end to the spike in prices,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he possibility of an economic slowdown nationally might lead to some price depreciation, but absolutely nothing like we saw in 2008-2009.鈥�

Debt Ceiling Debacle

Of the frenzied politics over the national debt ceiling, Snaith likens the drama to a bad movie 鈥渨e鈥檝e been forced to watch over and over again. There鈥檚 no M. Night Shyamalan twist here.鈥�

The deal, as it stands Thursday morning, will have little economic impact.

鈥淪ome of the concessions are headwinds for the economy, but this is not going to have a major shock,鈥� Snaith says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 simply not a dramatic reduction in spending and likely only to be temporary.鈥�

More Florida Forecast

Snaith鈥檚 forecast also includes individual outlooks for Florida鈥檚 25 metro areas. Some additional highlights from Snaith鈥檚 latest four-year Florida forecast include:

• From 2023-26, Florida鈥檚 economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, will expand at an average annual rate of 1.2%. Real Gross State Product will decelerate during the economic slowdown as growth will slow to 0.8% in 2024 and in 2025, then accelerate to reach 1.6% by 2026.
• Real personal income growth will average 2.2% during 2023-2026. Following an inflation-driven pullback in 2022, growth will average 2.9% during 2025-2026, hitting 3.0% in 2026. Florida鈥檚 average growth will be 0.2 percentage points higher than the national rate over the 2023-26 four-year span.

• Payroll job growth in Florida will begin to falter with a slowdown in the U.S. economy, but not in every sector. After year-over-year growth of 4.6% in 2021 and job growth of 5.3% in 2022, payroll employment in 2023 will decelerate to 1.0% and contract by 2.4% in 2024 and by 0.5% in 2025. Job growth turns positive and grows by 0.8% in 2026.

• Housing starts will be suppressed by the slowdown and higher mortgage rates. Total starts of 158,349 in 2020 jumped to 193,049 in 2021 and held at 192,213 in 2022 鈥� all before higher interest rates and a slowing economy result in a deceleration in starts to 142,183 in 2023 and 137,121 in 2024 before ticking up to 147,146 in 2025 and 149,030 in 2026. Rapid house-price appreciation has been washed away with demand dampened by rising mortgage rates, decreasing affordability and the slowing economy.

Although many economists, and certainly politicians, loathed to use the word “recession” last year, Snaith compares it to the “jobless recoveries” of the early 1990s and 2000s in his latest quarterly U.S. forecast released this morning.

And another recession may be coming, says Snaith, director of 麻豆原创’s Institute for Economic Forecasting.

But unlike past recessions, the labor market has kept growing in the face of other economic losses 鈥� something that’s unprecedented, Snaith says.

“In the 2008 housing crash and COVID-19 recession, the labor market was cut to the bone,” he says. “There’s still a lot of fat in this labor market even with the current slowdowns.”

Snaith points to other indicators of a pending recession. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes and fears surrounding recent banking collapses are adding pressure, he says, which has been building as inflation has eroded consumers鈥� purchasing power.

A Second Serving of a 鈥楶asta Bowl Recession鈥�

Last year, Snaith coined another term, the “Pasta Bowl Recession,” to describe what he saw as a shallow slide into鈥攁nd eventually a gradual climb out of 鈥� a recession.

It seems the U.S. may be in for a small second helping this year.

“I don’t think this will turn into an economic version of Olive Garden’s never-ending pasta bowl, but many indicators suggest that we are on the brink of or currently in another relatively short and shallow recession,” Snaith says.

And eventually, slowdowns in the U.S. labor market will become more apparent.

“While the labor market showed little signs of the 2022 recession, the second Pasta Bowl Recession will not be as innocuous,” he saiys. “We’ll see unemployment rising as 2023 progresses, all the way through 2025. Job growth will turn negative but not as sharply as was the case in the wake of the 2008-09 and 2020 recessions.”

One silver lining Snaith forecasts is a slow decline in consumer price inflation through the end of the year. By the end of 2024, inflation will be close to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target thanks to interest rate hikes and the second Pasta Bowl Recession.

Some additional highlights from Snaith鈥檚 latest four-year U.S. forecast include:

• U.S. consumers provided the muscle that powered the 2020 recovery. Following the end of most lockdowns, consumers were ready to spend. Since then, high energy prices, food costs and housing costs have steadily eroded their purchasing power. While credit card debt has temporarily patched the hole in their monthly budgets, this loss has set the table for the next serving of the “Pasta Bowl Recession.”
• Real GDP growth was -2.8% in 2020 but accelerated to 5.9% in 2021. It eased to 2.1% in 2022 and will further slow to 0.4% in 2023 before slowly rising to 0.8% in 2024 and then to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026.
• The housing market remains tight. High prices plus rising mortgage rates have eroded demand. However, still-low inventories will underpin the sector. Housing starts will decline from 1.6 million in 2022 to 1.1 million in 2023 and 2024 before rising to nearly 1.3 million in 2026.