{"id":135566,"date":"2023-06-01T11:00:16","date_gmt":"2023-06-01T15:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/news\/?p=135566"},"modified":"2023-06-01T11:00:16","modified_gmt":"2023-06-01T15:00:16","slug":"ucf-economist-says-florida-ready-to-weather-the-next-economic-storm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/news\/ucf-economist-says-florida-ready-to-weather-the-next-economic-storm\/","title":{"rendered":"麻豆原创 Economist Says Florida Ready to Weather the Next \u2018Economic Storm\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

In what may be the most anticipated recession ever closing in on the U.S. economy, Florida is in a strong position to weather the next \u201ceconomic storm.\u201d That\u2019s according to 麻豆原创 economist Sean Snaith in his latest statewide forecast<\/a> released this morning.<\/p>\n

\u201cEconomically speaking, we have our flashlights, batteries, food and water,\u201d Snaith says of Florida\u2019s economy on the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season. \u201cCompared to what Florida went through in the two previous recessions, the next recession will be more akin to a tropical depression.\u201d<\/p>\n

Much of the reason is due to consumers\u2019 continued spending on services and experiences \u2014critical for Florida\u2019s tourism sector.<\/p>\n

Plus, Snaith, the director of 麻豆原创\u2019s Institute for Economic Forecasting, explains: \u201cFlorida\u2019s continued population growth, which led the nation last year, and the associated wealth and income it has brought to the state serve as \u2018sandbags\u2019 against erosion of economic activity. Record-low unemployment and continued job growth are like our \u2018storm shutters,\u2019 lessening the damage that a recession would do to our labor market.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ultimately, Snaith says \u201cFlorida\u2019s economy is as well prepared to weather a national recession as we could be.\u201d<\/p>\n

Snaith also adds that Florida\u2019s red-hot housing market has cooled.<\/p>\n

\u201cHigh prices coupled with rising mortgage rates have brought an end to the spike in prices,\u201d he says. \u201cThe possibility of an economic slowdown nationally might lead to some price depreciation, but absolutely nothing like we saw in 2008-2009.\u201d<\/p>\n

Debt Ceiling Debacle<\/h1>\n

Of the frenzied politics over the national debt ceiling, Snaith likens the drama to a bad movie \u201cwe\u2019ve been forced to watch over and over again. There\u2019s no M. Night Shyamalan twist here.\u201d<\/p>\n

The deal, as it stands Thursday morning, will have little economic impact.<\/p>\n

\u201cSome of the concessions are headwinds for the economy, but this is not going to have a major shock,\u201d Snaith says. \u201cIt\u2019s simply not a dramatic reduction in spending and likely only to be temporary.\u201d<\/p>\n

More Florida Forecast<\/h1>\n

Snaith\u2019s forecast also includes individual outlooks for Florida\u2019s 25 metro areas. Some additional highlights from Snaith\u2019s latest four-year Florida forecast include:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • From 2023-26, Florida\u2019s economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, will expand at an average annual rate of 1.2%. Real Gross State Product will decelerate during the economic slowdown as growth will slow to 0.8% in 2024 and in 2025, then accelerate to reach 1.6% by 2026.<\/li>\n
  • Real personal income growth will average 2.2% during 2023-2026. Following an inflation-driven pullback in 2022, growth will average 2.9% during 2025-2026, hitting 3.0% in 2026. Florida\u2019s average growth will be 0.2 percentage points higher than the national rate over the 2023-26 four-year span.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
      \n
    • Payroll job growth in Florida will begin to falter with a slowdown in the U.S. economy, but not in every sector. After year-over-year growth of 4.6% in 2021 and job growth of 5.3% in 2022, payroll employment in 2023 will decelerate to 1.0% and contract by 2.4% in 2024 and by 0.5% in 2025. Job growth turns positive and grows by 0.8% in 2026.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
      • Housing starts will be suppressed by the slowdown and higher mortgage rates. Total starts of 158,349 in 2020 jumped to 193,049 in 2021 and held at 192,213 in 2022 \u2014 all before higher interest rates and a slowing economy result in a deceleration in starts to 142,183 in 2023 and 137,121 in 2024 before ticking up to 147,146 in 2025 and 149,030 in 2026. Rapid house-price appreciation has been washed away with demand dampened by rising mortgage rates, decreasing affordability and the slowing economy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        \u201cCompared to what Florida went through in the two previous recessions, the next recession will be more akin to a tropical depression,\u201d says 麻豆原创 economist Sean Snaith.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":135567,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"lazy_load_responsive_images_disabled":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":"","_wp_rev_ctl_limit":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[7309,1486,4194],"tu_author":[],"class_list":["post-135566","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-college-of-business","tag-economic-forecast","tag-sean-snaith"],"yoast_head":"\n麻豆原创 Economist Says Florida Ready to Weather the Next \u2018Economic Storm\u2019 | 麻豆原创 News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u201cCompared to what Florida went through in the two previous recessions, the next 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