{"id":139813,"date":"2024-02-21T11:17:04","date_gmt":"2024-02-21T16:17:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/news\/?p=139813"},"modified":"2024-02-21T11:42:37","modified_gmt":"2024-02-21T16:42:37","slug":"ucf-economist-u-s-economys-false-signals-muddy-the-waters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ucf.edu\/news\/ucf-economist-u-s-economys-false-signals-muddy-the-waters\/","title":{"rendered":"麻豆原创 Economist: U.S. Economy\u2019s \u2018False Signals\u2019 Muddy the Waters"},"content":{"rendered":"

The latest U.S. economic forecast of Sean Snaith, the director of 麻豆原创\u2019s Institute for Economic Forecasting and a nationally recognized economist in forecasting, analysis and market sizing, compares the trickiness of predicting a slowdown with the fickleness of fly fishing. In both, he says, indicators can give false signals.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe economic indicators that were reliable signals of a recession in the past are giving false signals in the new economic riverbed forged by the pandemic policies,\u201d Snaith says in his U.S. economic forecast<\/a> released this morning.<\/p>\n

Labor market and supply chain disruptions, massive monetary and fiscal stimulus, soaring energy prices and high inflation have at least temporarily altered the inner workings of the economy, says Snaith.<\/p>\n

The results showed second-guessing, revised predictions and less confidence in the indicators that previously signaled economic slowdowns. Still, Snaith anticipates growth slowing in 2024 and unemployment rising. Job growth will slow to a trickle, he says, but should not turn negative.<\/p>\n

Several additional highlights from Snaith\u2019s four-year quarterly U.S. forecast include:<\/p>\n